In ministry and mission work, I often evaluate and design evangelistic outreach programs for local congregations. Who will be the target audience? What will motivate those the church seeks to reach? What should the church do to maximize results? What activities will be most effective?
Equally important questions must be added when one considers that almost all U.S. churches between 50 and 299 are in decline. Is the trend reversible? How does a congregation avoid the plight of almost all other congregations like it?
These and many other questions come to mind, but the larger question (the elephant in the boardroom, if you will) is how one can get people to do what they are not currently doing. That is, how can people who do not currently attend church be encouraged to attend church? Addressing this question is essential when one considers that only a small percentage of the U.S. population goes to church regularly. Further, that percentage is decreasing steadily.
For years, I said that approximately 1/3 of the population were churched, 1/3 minimally churched, and 1/3 unchurched. I believe those numbers came from an older Barna report. The definition of churched in the report included all who attended church at least once a month.
More recently observations and focused research have caused me to conclude that on any given Sunday, it is likely that no more than 15-20% of the U.S. population is in church (Easter excluded). In 2003, the local newspaper conducted a church survey in a southeastern Oklahoma city of about 20000 population. The city had 31 churches. The 10 largest religious groups had a combined attendance of about 2500, with the 10th largest church reporting an attendance of only about 50. If one were to count the other 21 churches as having attendances of 50 (to add 1000 to the total), the average weekly attendance was only about 3500 persons (17.5%). I believe this number is an accurate representation of church attendance in our nation.
Information from major opinion research firms suggests that about 40% of the U.S. population attends church regularly. For example, National Opinion Research Center reports 38%, Institute for Social Research’s World Values 44%, Barna 41%, National Election Studies 40%, and Gallup 41%. The estimate of 40% church attendance is widely reported in the media. More and more, this commonly reported number is being challenged. Perhaps it is more accurate to say that 40% of Americans claim to attend church regularly.
Various studies during the last 10 years have addressed problems related to polling. How was the question asked, what was the desired answer, how does one correct for under or over reporting? In 1998, Stanley Presser (University of Michigan) estimated that the actual percentage of those attending church during the last third of the twentieth century was about 26%. Also in 1998, C. Kirk Hadaway and P.L. Marler researched some of these factors and published an article (“Did You Really Go to Church This Week? Behind the Poll Data”, Christian Century). They focused on individual counties, surveying actual attendance and comparing it with random surveys they conducted. They found that actual church attendance was about half the rate indicated by national public opinion polls. Their estimate for US actual church attendance was around 20%. Dave Olson surveyed only Christian churches (evangelical, mainline, and Catholic) and reported that the percentage of Americans regularly attending church is 18.7%.
The director of the Center for the Study of Religion at Princeton University, Robert Wuthnow, said that the terrorists’ attacks have not changed the basic makeup of the U.S.:
- About ¼ of American adults are devoutly religious,
- About ¼ are secular, and
- The remaining half is only mildly interested in religion.
Wuthnow continued: “We are in some ways a very religious country, especially compared to Western Europe. But we’re of two minds, and the other mind is that we really are pretty secular. We are very much a country of consumers and shoppers, and we’re quite materialistic. And as long as we can kind of paste together a sense of control through our ordinary work and our ordinary purchases, we’re pretty happy to do that.”
Given these numbers, what is the future of evangelism for the church I am working with? What should I tell them?How can they encourage people who do not attend church to begin to do so? The answers will not be easy, but we have to ask the questions.